What are the Odds of Unboxing a Million-Dollar Skin in Counter-Strike?

Counter-Strike: Global Offensive

8 Mar

Ganesh Jadhav

The Counter-Strike Market is booming, just yesterday the market cap reached a whopping $4.28 Billion. These skins are not just in-game cosmetics anymore but exclusive collectibles with a market that deals in thousands if not millions.

Depending on the rarity of a skin, its price can range from a single penny to almost a million dollars. With more players engaging with the skin market of Counter-Strike, the prices of rare skins will only keep increasing.

That said, unboxing a rare skin is as good as winning a lottery. Especially if you unbox an extremely rare skin such as a AK-47 | Case Hardened FN Pattern 661 or a Karambit | Case Hardened FN Pattern 339 that has offers in million, you are set for life.

That said, how hard can it really be? What are the odds of unboxing a skin worth a million dollars? Let's work out the maths together.

So, what are the chances?

For a skin to be worth a million dollars, there are a few considerations;

Must be a Factory New skin
Must be a StatTrak
Must be a Red (Covert) or a Gold (Knife, Glove)
Belonging to a Case/Collection that is out of rotation
Having an extremely low float number or rare pattern.

Now that we have established what the skin can be, let’s crunch some numbers and find out if you can actually unbox a million dollar skin.

Firstly, the odds of getting a Gold or Red from a Counter-Strike Case is as follows;

Red - 0.64% i.e. On an average one red drops every 156 cases
Gold - 0.26% i.e. On an average one Gold drops every 385 cases

Next, what will be the odds of them being Factory New;

A FN Red - Approximately 0.096% i.e. On an average one per 1042 cases
A FN Knife - Approximately 0.039% i.e. On an average one per 2564 cases

Next, adding the StatTrak condition we get the following odds;

A FN StatTrak Red - Approximately 0.0096% i.e. On an average one per 10417 cases
A FN StatTrak Knife - Approximately 0.0039% i.e. On an average one per 25640 cases

Now the additional odds of a Rare Float or Pattern, gives us the following odds;

A FN StatTrak Red with rare float/pattern - Approximately 0.000096% i.e. On an average one per 1085000 cases
A FN StatTrak Knife with rare float/pattern - Approximately 0.000039% i.e. On an average one per 2560000 cases

Statiscally, you will have to spend an average of $6 million dollars to unbox a million dollar skin in Counter-Strike. To put it into perspective, you are more likely to get hit by lightning than unboxing an extremely rare million dollar skin.

But don’t let the stats fool you, you might just be another case opening away from unboxing a Blue Gem Karambit.

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